Oscar Predictions

Okay, So I'm a bit of a movie whore- so every year come Oscar time I like to pretend that I know more than the critics and give away who I think will win and who I think should win. Here's the 2004 list:


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA (**SHOULD WIN**)
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY (** WILL WIN **)

Though I was a super huge fan of EVERY single nominated performance, I truly believe that this one should go to Cheadle. He is unbelievable in Hotel Rwanda- but unfortunately, it isn't the glamour type of role that usually gets rewarded in this category. But I'm okay with it, because Jamie Foxx was UNBELIEVABLE in Ray. Though it could still go to Clint Eastwood, I find it more like that they will reward him as a producer and director than an actor.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY (**SHOULD AND WILL WIN**)
Clive Owen - CLOSER

One thing to remember about the oscars is that it isn't always about the best performance. Many factors play in: how long the actor has been around, what they've been snubbed for in the past, how old they are and how many nominations they have under their belts. The beauty of Morgan Freeman is that he not only fits all the politically correct categories but he also delivers a beautiful, subtle and brilliant performance. However, kudos go out to Alan Alda for Aviator.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY (**WILL WIN**)
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND(**SHOULD WIN**)

This one appears to be a slam dunk. It's going to Swank. There's so talk of giving it to Benning but the role just isn't showy enough. I'd love to see it go to Kate Winslet, she is stunning in ESSM- but it's not going to happen cause not enough people understood the film.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR (**WILL WIN**)
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA (** SHOULD WIN**)
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

This is another one of those categories that I wish they could give out a few more awards to...the caliber of performances is notably high. This is an absolute toss-up and possibly the most difficult category to predict. I'm leaning towards Cate Blanchett, just because of the energy of the role and the fact that Kate Hepburn just died recently. But in all honesty, it could go to anyone here. And deservedly so, but I think we can discount Laura Linner (too controversial movie and a pretty simple role) and Portman (too young and first nomination). A lot of sources are saying Madsen though so we'll see.

Animated Feature Film of the Year
THE INCREDIBLES (Buena Vista) Brad Bird (**SHOULD WIN AND WILL WIN**)
SHARK TALE (DreamWorks) Bill Damaschka
SHREK 2 (DreamWorks) Andrew Adamson

Yeah, this one strikes me as pretty simple.

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND (**SHOULD WIN**)
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (**WILL WIN**)
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

This is a category that has a very extensive range of possible winners. It will all come down to what they are looking for. Most of these films are beautiful to watch- but I'd be on the lookout for either Phantom or Finding Neverland. Lemony Snickets is a favorite to win, but I hated it so I'm not putting it down regardless


CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR (**WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN**)
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

Those plane scenes are damn hard to shoot and in general the cinematography in this film was stellar.

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR (**WILL WIN**
FINDING NEVERLAND (**SHOULD WIN**)
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
RAY
TROY

I was surprised to not see Phantom on this list but pretty much all the films had great costume work. Ray had fantastic use of color and I love the half-naked Brad Pitt in Troy but my pick is the beautiful work done in Aviator and Neverland

DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR (**WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN**)
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

This could easily go to Million Dollar Baby but I have a feeling they're finally going to give Scorcese his overdue oscar.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME (**WILL WIN**)
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

Though I've heard that Born Into Brothels is amazing, my guess here is SuperSize Me- the best documentary tends to go to the most well known.


DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION (**WILL WIN**)

I don't know, cause I haven't seen any of these but I've heard that Sister Rose is great. So let's go with that.


FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR (**SHOULD WIN**)
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (**WILL WIN**)
RAY

In following tradition with Rocky and Raging Bull, my pick is for the boxing movie. The Academy seems to like the editing in fight flicks. But, in my opinion, there was some brilliant editing done for the flight scenes in the aviator so it's anyone's game.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS (**WILL WIN**)
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

In all honesty, here's another category that I haven't seen much of...but rumour has it that The Sea Inside is doing well. Les Choristes is a smash in Quebec. I like french films, so I'm going with that one.

MAKEUP
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST (**WILL WIN**)
THE SEA INSIDE
Let's go with the Passion here, just because they know they should give it something and my guess is that this one is it.

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND (**WILL WIN**)
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE (**SHOULD WIN**)
I'm going with Finding Neverland here. Music was an instrumental part of the movie- though i was personally a very big fan of the score for the Village.

MUSIC (SONG)
"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (**WILL WIN**)
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS (**SHOULD WIN**)
I think they'll give it to Phantom though I don't think they should. I loved Vois Sur Ton Chemin...it's beautiful and Believe is great and has been very well marketted.

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND (**SHOULD WIN**)
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (**WILL WIN**)
RAY
SIDEWAYS

My money is on Million Dollar Babies- the Academy is full of tear jerker suckers. Though I personally think that Ray was brilliant and I love Finding Neverland. The other contender is the Aviator- but i just don't think it's as "clean" as the other nominees.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BIRTHDAY BOY (**WILL WIN**)
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN
I have no idea here so let's go with Birthday Boy. It sounds like fun.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP (**WILL WIN**)
One more category I know nothing about but for the sake of it, let's go with Wasp. Heard it was brilliant.

SOUND EDITING
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2 (**WILL WIN**)
This is one of those places where we can give movies like Spiderman props. So let's go with that one.

SOUND MIXING
THE AVIATOR (**WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN)
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2
My personal pick here is the same as my "will win" yet again- the Aviator. Those planes are hard to work with. But this could also go to the Incredibles.

VISUAL EFFECTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT (**WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN**)
SPIDER-MAN 2
I hope they recognize the brillince of I, Robot and give it the Oscar. I really do.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (**WILL WIN**)
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS (**SHOULD WIN**)

I would realy like to see Sideways take this one- it's a very clever story and great movie which is being overshadowed by well produced and marketed competition. But I think it will go to Million Dollar Baby. Sadness.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

I will be disappointed if anything but ESSM gets this one...Kaufman is brilliant and this is one arguably his best work. Besides, the Academy usually gives this one to films that they don't really understand. But I'll also be happy with Hotel Rwanda winning. What a great film.

There we go- I'll let you know how I did.

Zita